by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2024 03:35:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Year-to-date total carloads in 2024 through September were down 3.3% (285,871 carloads) from last year and down 3.0% from the first nine months of 2022. So far in 2024, total carloads fell on a year over-year basis every month except August. ... Year-to-date U.S. intermodal in 2024 through September was 10.2 million units, up 9.5% (882,064 units) over last year and the fourth highest January-September total ever.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average for carloads for the last 3 years.  Total carloads were down 0.5% in September YoY.

Carloads excluding coal were more promising: they were up 2.9% in Q3 2024 over Q3 2023, suggesting continued appetite for rail transportation. Excluding coal, total carloads were 1.4% (86,782 carloads) higher in the first nine months of 2024 than in the same period in 2023.

And on Intermodal:

U.S. intermodal originations in September 2024 were up 10.7% (108,257 containers and trailers) over September 2023, marking more than a year of consecutive year-over-year gains. In Q3 2024, intermodal was up 11.0% over Q3 2023, the biggest year-over-year percentage gain for a quarter since Q2 2021. Total intermodal originations averaged 274,500 in Q3 2024. Only 2018 had a better third quarter for total intermodal.

Note: rail traffic was weak even before the pandemic. As AAR noted: "Trade tensions and declining mfrg. output lead to lower rail volumes" in 2019.