by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved higher for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.52 percent, its highest level since August,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The recent uptick in rates has put a damper on applications. Refinance applications fell 26 percent to their lowest level since August, with comparable drops in both conventional and government refinances. This pushed the refinance share of applications back below 50 percent for the first time in over a month. Furthermore, purchase applications also decreased but notably remain 7 percent higher than a year ago.”

Added Kan, “Demand is holding up to an extent for prospective first-time buyers. FHA purchase applications were little changed despite the increase in rates, as some first-time homebuyers remain in the market because of improving housing inventory conditions.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.52 percent from 6.36 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 8% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last three weeks as rates increased.