by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2024 08:11:00 AM

Boo!

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and the October employment report.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays and PCE prices for September, the Case-Shiller house prices for August, October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

----- Monday, October 28th -----
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

----- Tuesday, October 29th -----
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the Composite 20 index to be up 6.0% year-over-year.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in August to 8.04 million from 7.71 million in July.

The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year. Quits were down 14% year-over-year.

10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, October 30th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 108,000 jobs added, down from 143,000 in September.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q3, unchanged from 3.0% in Q2.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is 1.0% decrease in the index.

----- Thursday, October 31st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 227 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.1% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 46.0, down from 46.6 in September.

----- Friday, November 1st -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 254,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 47.6, up from 47.2. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.  The consensus is for no change in spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.8 million SAAR, unchanged from 15.8 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.