by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2024 01:59:00 PM

After the election in November 2016, I wrote The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full. I pointed out that there were many tailwinds for the economy (heading into 2017) and that most of Mr. Trump's proposals probably wouldn't happen like repealing the ACA or deporting 10+ million people. However, as expected, Trump did cut taxes on high income earners.

I also noted in 2016: "The general rule is don't invest based on your political views, however it is also important to look at the impact of specific policies."

For the upcoming election, most key economists and analysts (Goldman Sachs, Moody's and more) believe the economy will perform better under Harris than Trump.  I agree.  If Harris is elected, the economy will mostly continue on the current path and the US economy is the envy of the world (a better recovery from the pandemic than most other countries).  There is always more to do, but the US has done better than most.

However, I doubt I will be as sanguine as I was in 2016 if Mr. Trump is elected again.  

Although Trump is lazy and incoherent regarding policy (everything is always 2 weeks away - aka "Free beer tomorrow"), he is making many of the same promises again (repeal ACA, deport 20+ million people, cut taxes on the wealthy, raise taxes on lower- and middle-income earners via tariffs).  Some of those promises might happen and have a negative impact on the economy.

I'll write more on the economic outlook after the election.