by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 09:20:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024.

Services were up 4.7% YoY as of September 2024, down from 4.8% YoY in August.

Services less rent of shelter was up 4.4% YoY in September, up from 4.3% YoY in August.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.9% YoY as of September 2024, up from -4.2% YoY in August.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in September, up from -1.7% YoY in August.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through September) and housing from the PCE report (through August)

Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in September, down from 5.2% in August. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in August, up from 5.2% in July.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase."

This is still catching up with private data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in September.