by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2024 12:03:00 PM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 477 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 390 thousand SAAR in October, down from 476 thousand in September, and down 14.4% from 455 thousand SAAR in October 2023.  

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.  This is just one month, and sales might have been impacted by the hurricanes (and could be revised up).

Meanwhile, as I mentioned earlier, light vehicle sales increased in October.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  Vehicle sales were at 16.04 million SAAR in October, up from 15.77 million in September, and up 4.5% from 15.34 million in October 2023.