by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2024 04:02:00 PM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 2.8% below the peak for the year (5 weeks ago).

Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.7%), and down 17.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 18.5%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is about two-thirds closed.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Nov 22nd, inventory was at 719 thousand (7-day average), compared to 722 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.