by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2024 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 10.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 1, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 19 percent from the previous week and was 48 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Ten-year Treasury rates remain volatile and continue to put upward pressure on mortgage rates. The 30- year fixed rate last week increased to 6.81 percent, the highest level since July,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Applications decreased for the sixth consecutive week, with purchase activity falling to its lowest level since mid-August and refinance activity declining to the lowest level since May. The average loan size on a refinance application dropped below $300,000, as borrowers with larger loans tend to be more sensitive to any given changes in mortgage rates.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.73 percent, with points decreasing to 0.68 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 4% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 13% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined September but decreased over the last six weeks as rates moved back up.