by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2024 08:52:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.5% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024.

Services were up 4.7% YoY as of October 2024, unchanged from 4.7% YoY in September.

Services less rent of shelter was up 4.5% YoY in October, up from 4.4% YoY in September.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.5% YoY as of October 2024, up from -2.9% YoY in September.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in October, unchnaged from -1.2% YoY in September.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through October) and housing from the PCE report (through September)

Shelter was up 4.9% year-over-year in October, up from 4.8% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 5.1% YoY in September, down from 5.3% in August.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase."

This is still catching up with private data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in October.