RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2024 02:09:00 PM
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
FOMC Projections
Statement here.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4).
So, the projections for GDP were revised up for 2024, the unemployment rate revised down for 2024, and inflation revised up for the next couple of years.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (and 4.1% in October). This is below the low end of the September projections for Q4.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of October 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is in the middle of the September projection range.
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in October. This was slightly above the range of FOMC projections for Q4.
In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.375% at the end of 2025 (3.1%–3.6%) and the long run range was 2.5% to 3.5%. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range is 2.8% to 3.6%.
The BEA's second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1. Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%. That put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Dec 2024 | 2.4 to 2.5 | 1.8 to 2.2 | 1.9 to 2.1 | 1.8 to 2.0 |
| Sept 2024 | 1.9 to 2.1 | 1.8 to 2.2 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 1.8 to 2.1 |
The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (and 4.1% in October). This is below the low end of the September projections for Q4.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Dec 2024 | 4.2 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 4.1 to 4.4 | 4.0 to 4.4 |
| Sept 2024 | 4.3 to 4.4 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 4.0 to 4.4 | 4.0 to 4.4 |
As of October 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is in the middle of the September projection range.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Dec 2024 | 2.4 to 2.5 | 2.3 to 2.6 | 2.0-2.2 | 2.0 |
| Sept 2024 | 2.2 to 2.4 | 2.1 to 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in October. This was slightly above the range of FOMC projections for Q4.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Dec 2024 | 2.8 to 2.9 | 2.5 to 2.7 | 2.0-2.3 | 2.0 |
| Sept 2024 | 2.6 to 2.7 | 2.1 to 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
