by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.4% in November, up from 46.5% in October. The employment index was at 48.1%, up from 44.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 50.4%, up from 47.1%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% November 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 50.3 percent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.8 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from October’s figure of 44.4 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in November.  This was above the consensus forecast.