by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2024 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 29, 2024. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 30 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 30 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in over a month last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.69 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The recent strength in purchase activity continues, supported by lower rates and higher inventory levels, which are giving prospective buyers more options compared to earlier in the year. The purchase index increased for the fourth straight week to its highest level since January 2024. Conventional refinance applications declined despite the lower rates, but FHA and VA refinances rebounded from a week ago.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.69 percent from 6.86 percent, with points decreasing to 0.67 from 0.70 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 21% year-over-year unadjusted (due to timing of Thanksgiving - this was up sharply last week). 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 29% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.