by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in November to 8.9 months from 9.2 months in October.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 490,000. This represents a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were above expectations of 650 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll have more later today.