by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2025 08:12:00 AM

The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.25% increase in December core CPI (vs. 0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.27% (vs. 3.3% consensus). We expect a 0.40% increase in December headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), reflecting 0.35% higher food prices and 2.3% higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.21% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent and with a 0.18% increase in core PCE in December.

From BofA:

We forecast both headline and core CPI inflation to remain at 0.3% m/m in December, although there is a risk that the core could round down to 0.2%. The y/y rate should tick up a tenth to 2.8% for headline and remain unchanged at 3.3% for core.