by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 01:55:00 PM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 422 thousand SAAR in December, down from 491 thousand in November, and down 9.5% from 466 thousand SAAR in December 2023.  

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.  This is just one month, and sales might be revised up.

Meanwhile, as I mentioned on Friday, light vehicle sales increased in December.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  

Vehicle sales were at 16.80 million SAAR in December, up from 16.65 million in November, and up 5.5% from 15.92 million in December 2023.