by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 27, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the Christmas holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 21.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 55 percent compared with two weeks ago. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 36 percent from two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 62 percent from two weeks ago and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with two weeks ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 48 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved higher through the last full week of 2024, reaching almost 7 percent for 30-year fixed-rate loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Not surprisingly, this increase in rates – at a time when housing activity typically grinds to a halt – resulted in declines in both refinance and purchase applications.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.97 percent from 6.89 percent, with points increasing to 0.72 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 17% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 9% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 9% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index is very low.