by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 33.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 33.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 52 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 44 percent from the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 27 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 48 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Bond yields in the U.S. and abroad continued to move higher in response to concerns over a sticky inflation outlook and still too-high budget deficits, which pushed mortgage rates higher for the fifth consecutive week. The 30-year fixed rate is now at 7.09 percent – its highest level since May 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “This time of the year is a particularly volatile time for application volumes, so it can be more helpful to focus on the level rather than the percent change. Purchase applications were 2 percent lower, and refinances were 22 percent higher compared to a year ago. Total applications were up by 33.3 percent, the highest level in a month, as both purchase and refinance applications saw large percentage increases over the week.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.09 percent from 6.99 percent, with points decreasing to 0.65 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 2% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 29% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 7% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index is very low.