by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2025 08:48:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.0% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through December 2024.

Services were up 4.4% YoY as of December 2024, down from 4.5% YoY in November.

Services less rent of shelter was up 4.0% YoY in December, down from 4.1% YoY in November

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.9% YoY as of December 2024, up from -2.0% YoY in November.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.5% YoY in December, up from -0.7% YoY in November.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through December) and housing from the PCE report (through November)

Shelter was up 4.6% year-over-year in December, down from 4.8% in November. Housing (PCE) was up 4.8% YoY in November, down from 5.0% in October.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.  

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in December.