by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2025 01:07:00 PM

From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans

International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The research firm had originally forecast a 9 percent increase in foreign travel, but revised its estimate late last month to reflect “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric.”

“There’s been a dramatic shift in our outlook,” said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. “You’re looking at a much weaker economic engine than what otherwise would’ve been, not just because of tariffs, but the rhetoric and condescending tone around it.”

And Germany and the UK have issued (mild) warnings on travel to U.S.

The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were:
1) Canada 31% in 2023
2) Mexico 22% in 2023
3) UK 6% in 2023

This could impact hotel occupancy in the U.S.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 15 March

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 15 March. ...

9-15 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 64.2% (-3.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.49 (-0.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.36 (-4.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase a little more seasonally and then move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Weekly Schedule