by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2025 08:13:00 AM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8% while institutional planning fell 5.0%.

“Increased uncertainty around material prices and fiscal policies may have begun to factor into planning decisions throughout March,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “While planning data has weakened across most nonresidential sectors this month, activity remains considerably higher than year-ago levels and still suggests steady construction activity in mid-2026.”

On the commercial side, weaker planning activity for warehouses, data centers and retail stores drove this month’s decline. Meanwhile, hotel and office planning continued to accelerate. On the institutional side, planning activity slowed for education, healthcare and government buildings. In March, the DMI was up 30% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 32% from March 2024. The institutional segment was up 27% over the same period, following a very weak March last year. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year remains substantial. If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 12%. While momentum decelerated for data centers this month, levels of activity remain very high.
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The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 205.6 in March, down from 220.9 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

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