by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2009 08:59:00 PM

From the NY Times: As Recession Deepens, So Does Milk Surplus

[W]hile the government has price-support programs for about two dozen agricultural products, so far milk powder is the only commodity that has sunk low enough to trigger the flow of government dollars. Some expect that taxpayers will soon be buying blocks of cheese, too, given the plunging price.

I'm back home and I'm catching up on my email and the news. Normal posting resumes tomorrow ... best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2009 09:56:00 AM

Click on graph for updated image in new window. (small image HAS NOT been updated.)

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

This graph from Doug "The Mega Bear Quartet" compares the recent S&P 500 bear market with the Dow following the Crash of 1929, the post-1989 Nikkei 225, and the NASDAQ after the Tech Bubble.

Note: I'm returning home today from my vacation. Happy New Year to all.

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2008 02:30:00 PM

This cartoon is from 1992 ...

Click on cartoon for larger image in new window. Cartoon from Eric G. Lewis www.EricGLewis.com (site coming soon)

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2008 11:30:00 AM

Click on cartoon for larger image in new window. Cartoon from Eric G. Lewis www.EricGLewis.com (site coming soon)

I'll be home tomorrow! Happy New Year to All!

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2008 08:59:00 AM

From the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending Dec. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 492,000, a decrease of 94,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 586,000. The 4-week moving average was 552,250, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 558,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent for the week ending Dec. 20, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 20 was 4,506,000, an increase of 140,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,366,000.

Although the data is seasonally adjusted, I'd discount the decline because of the holidays.


Note that the total insured unemployment is now over 4.5 million for the first time since 1982.

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2008 06:43:00 PM

From the NY Times: A Renter’s Market for Manhattan Offices

Even to industry veterans who have lived through other downturns, the precipitous decline in the Manhattan office market, especially in Midtown, has been startling.

“We have fallen further faster than any time in the last 20 years,” said Mitchell S. Steir, chief executive of Studley, a national brokerage firm that represents tenants. “There has been more damage to real estate values in the last four months than in any other four-month period. The pace with which it has occurred has been astonishing.”
...
[B]rokers say that actual rents have fallen much further than the data suggests. Studley said that the asking rents for 40 percent of the spaces included in its research are listed as “negotiable.”

“No one knows what the rents are, because there has been very little activity for the past three months,” said Ruth Colp-Haber, a partner at Wharton Property Advisors, which represents small to medium-size tenants. “No one is paying attention to the asking rents.”
...
[A]ctual rents have slipped as much as 25 percent since the summer, said Mitchell L. Konsker, a vice chairman of Cushman & Wakefield.

And the market will probably be flooded with sublease space in 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2008 02:30:00 PM

A few more vacation days ... I'll be back soon.

Hopefully next week I'll be moving to the new JS-Kit commenting system. This should help with improving the quality of the comments. For those interested, check on Mish's site.

Intermittent posting continues ...

Best to all

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2008 11:32:00 AM

From the NY Times: Breaking Up Is Harder to Do After Housing Fall

With nearly one in six homes worth less than the mortgage owed on it, according to Moody’s Economy.com, divorce lawyers and financial advisers around the country say the logistics of divorce have been turned around. “We used to fight about who gets to keep the house,” said Gary Nickelson, president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “Now we fight about who gets stuck with the dead cow.”

I know a couple with this problem - no one wants the house.

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2008 09:00:00 AM

From the WSJ: Case-Shiller Index Shows Sharpest Home-Price Declines in Sun Belt

Home prices continued to drop as the economic downturn deepened further in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, with home prices in the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest.

"The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March 2004 levels," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. He added that both composite indexes and 14 of the 20 metropolitan areas are reporting new record declines. As of October, the 10-city index is down 25% from its mid-2006 peak and the 20-city is down 23%, Blitzer said.

The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 19% in October from a year earlier and 3.6% from September. The drop marks the 10-city index's 13th straight monthly report of a record decline.

In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 18% from the prior year, also a record, and 2.2% from September.

I'll post graphs on Friday when I return.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2008 10:08:00 PM

From the WSJ: U.S. Deepens Involvement With GMAC Move

The U.S. government Monday deepened its involvement in the U.S. automotive industry by committing $6 billion to stabilize GMACLLC, a financing company vital to the future of struggling carmaker General MotorsCorp.

In a sign that the government's role in the industry could become open ended, Treasury said late Monday it had set up a separate program within the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a fund originally designed to help banks, to make investments directed at the auto industry. A Treasury official said the new program didn't have a specific dollar limit.

In Monday's move, the Treasury said it purchased $5 billion in senior preferred equity in GMAC and offered a new $1 billion loan to General Motors so that the automaker could participate in a rights offering at GMAC. That loan comes in addition to the recent $17.4 billion emergency plan to rescue General Motors and Chrysler LLC.

The bailout expands ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2008 02:30:00 PM

Some more discussion in the comments ... I'll post tonight. Posting will be intermittent for the next few days.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2008 11:30:00 AM

I'm hiking at the Canyon de Chelly in Arizona today. I'll post later today ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2008 08:40:00 AM

Paull Krugman writes: Fifty Herbert Hoovers

No modern American president would repeat the fiscal mistake of 1932, in which the federal government tried to balance its budget in the face of a severe recession. The Obama administration will put deficit concerns on hold while it fights the economic crisis.

But even as Washington tries to rescue the economy, the nation will be reeling from the actions of 50 Herbert Hoovers — state governors who are slashing spending in a time of recession, often at the expense both of their most vulnerable constituents and of the nation’s economic future.

State and local governments cut back every down turn, exacerbating the recession.

Krugman doesn't mention it, but most governments also tend to spend every dollar (or more!) during economic booms. Oh well ...

(out hiking today)

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2008 10:21:00 PM

From the NY Times: Private Equity Firms Are Near Deal to Buy IndyMac

The deal is in the final stages of negotiations, which are private, and could be announced as early as Monday ... The team of buyers include the private equity firms J. C. Flowers & Company and Dune Capital Management and the hedge fund Paulson & Company, the people involved in the deal said. It was unclear exactly how much capital the buyers would inject into IndyMac, but they would be shouldering a portion of the losses the bank may have on mortgages and other assets, these people said.

The proposed deal is unusual because it is one of the first transactions involving unregulated private equity firms acquiring a majority stake in a bank holding company.

Note: Light posting for next few days. Recharging my batteries in the mountains. Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2008 12:41:00 PM

On the road ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2008 08:54:00 AM

From the NY Times: A Wish List for Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate groups have been meeting with members of Congress, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as well as Mr. Obama’s transition team, to press their case. And they say they have a compelling one.

This is similar to the WSJ article I covered last week. The answer is there is no reason for a CRE bailout:

[T]his is really about property investors who bought commercial buildings at the price peak and are now underwater. But say the owners default and the properties are transferred to the bondholders - what is the risk to the economy? None.

The NY Times article claims CRE is in pretty good shape:

Although commercial real estate remains in better shaper than some other industries — there is a good balance between supply and demand, vacancy rates are modest and loan default rates have so far hovered at a rock-bottom 1 percent, according to trade groups — industry leaders warn that the sector faces significant problems.

Default rates are low - but starting to rise. However the balance between supply and demand is poor and vacancy rates are rising rapidly.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2008 12:30:00 AM

Here is an article from the NY Times on WaMu: By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans

Not much new, although I was aware of WaMu's lax lending, I wasn't aware of this flier:

By 2005, the word was out that WaMu would accept applications with a mere statement of the borrower’s income and assets — often with no documentation required — so long as credit scores were adequate, according to Ms. Zaback and other underwriters.

“We had a flier that said, ‘A thin file is a good file,’ ” recalled Michele Culbertson, a wholesale sales agent with WaMu.

Just great ...

Note: light posting while I'm traveling for the holidays. Adventure pictures to come! Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2008 10:10:00 AM

From the NY Times: Downturn Ends Building Boom in New York

Nearly $5 billion in development projects in New York City have been delayed or canceled because of the economic crisis, an extraordinary body blow to an industry that last year provided 130,000 unionized jobs, according to numbers tracked by a local trade group.
...
The long-term impact is potentially immense, experts said. Construction generated more than $30 billion in economic activity in New York last year, said Louis J. Coletti, the chief executive of the Building Trades Employers’ Association. The $5 billion in canceled or delayed projects tracked by Mr. Coletti’s association include all types of construction: luxury high-rise buildings, office renovations for major banks and new hospital wings. Mr. Coletti’s association, which represents 27 contractor groups, is talking to the trade unions about accepting wage cuts or freezes. So far there is no deal.

Not surprisingly, unemployment in the construction industry is soaring: in October, it was up by more than 50 percent from the same period last year, labor statistics show.

More bad CRE news ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2008 08:55:00 PM

From the WSJ: Retailers Brace for Major Change a few excerpts:

More Bankruptcies: Corporate-turnaround experts and bankruptcy lawyers are predicting a wave of retailer bankruptcies early next year, after being contacted by big and small retailers either preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection or scrambling to avoid that fate.

Analysts estimate that from about 10% to 26% of all retailers are in financial distress and in danger of filing for Chapter 11. AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010. In the previous two years, the firm had estimated 4% to 7% of retailers then tracked were at a high risk for filing.
...
Store Closings: The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates that 148,000 stores will close in 2008, the most since 2001, and it predicts that there will be an additional 73,000 closures in the first half of 2009.

January is usually the busiest month for retailer bankruptcies ... and 2009 will probably be especially busy.

Note:light posting for the next few days. Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2008 01:05:00 PM

A late Christmas present ... Click on cartoon for larger image in new window. Cartoon from Stu Rees Stu Rees Cartoons