by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2005 11:00:00 PM

UPDATE: Recommended reading: Running Out of Bubbles by Paul Krugman, NYTimes.

Original post:

The first paragraph is priceless:

Watching the housing market is sort of like a game of Clue before the murder. The victim is still alive and well, but we know he's going down. After the housing market is cold, it should be easy to finger the perpetrator. But for now, we're left to guess (Colonel Greenspan in the conservatory with the lead pipe?), and the perp might not be whom we expect.

The last line is a reminder of the difficulty in calling a top:

The Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2000:

"... for now, the frothy buying conditions in some of the nation's biggest housing markets, especially for high-end-homes, worry economists, who remember how the housing market crashed in the late 1980s after some markets overheated."

I wasn't concerned about housing in 2000; there was little or no speculation. I am concerned today.