by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2005 01:20:00 AM

Just a headsup. Dr. Leamer will present his quarterly forecast on June 21st. It sounds like the housing bubble will be the main topic. The UCLA Anderson forecast is typically one of the most accurate.

I'm confident there will be substantial news coverage.



JUNE 2005 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
What Goes Up Might Come Down
How Long Can This Hot Housing Market Last?
UCLA - Ackerman Grand Ballroom
Tuesday, June 21, 2005
7:00am - 11:30am

Overview
The current level of hype about real estate bears a worrisome resemblance to the dot.com bubble of the late nineties. Financial companies tout no-money-down interest-only loans as a way of extending speculators' purchasing power, and developers pitch new developments to buyers the way Wall Street analysts used to pitch new IPOs. According to the National Association of Realtors, over a third of total sales in 2004 were to families buying a second home--most for 'investment' purposes.

While housing activity levels are still high from a historical perspective, there are signs that the market is starting to slow. Appreciation rates and sales rates have peaked, and some markets have seen a rapid increase in inventory levels. The recent Fed warning regarding inflation has sent mortgage rates up.

How long can this market last? Are we in for a soft landing or a crash? Who is likely to be left holding the bag when the smoke clears? These are the questions --among many others--about the California and National housing markets that we will attempt to answer at the Conference.