by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2005 12:00:00 AM

Dr. Leamer, economist and UCLA Anderson Forecast Director, said today:

"It's going to take several more months of information before we know whether this month was the turning point, but it sure smells like it,"

I agree. I'd like to see an increase in inventories, a drop in sales and the flattening of prices over several months before I call the top - but it sure "smells like it" right now.

Leamer said he suspects the affordability crunch is putting the brakes on San Diego's market, where the annual price appreciation has tumbled from the 30 percent range last year to 5 percent this year.

"Rising interest rates are making it just a little less affordable for certain home buyers, and when you pull out that fraction of buyers in a fragile market, that might be enough to turn the thing around," Leamer said

Columnist Bonnie Erge expressed my view succinctly in Waiting for the Bubble to Burst:

It's bubble-bursting time, if you ask me.