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Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Freddie Mac: Cash-Out Volume Prime Conventional Loans

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2005 11:26:00 PM

Here is a table of the cash out volumes (according to Freddie Mac) since 1993 (note numbers don't exactly match earlier post - these are the revised numbers):


YEAREquity ExtractionEquity Extraction
Billions ($)Plus 2nd/Heloc $B
1993$19.9$39.3
1994$13.8$29.2
1995$11.2$21.7
1996$17.4$34.5
1997$21.4$39.1
1998$39.9$72.4
1999$37.0$71.1
2000$26.2$60.4
2001$82.9$135.5
2002$111.1$170.5
2003$146.9$224.4
2004$139.6$182.0
2005(est)$161.7$200.0
2006(forecast)$68.7$93.6


Freddie Mac reports that equity extraction was $102 Billion for the first 6 months of 2005 (they estimate $161.7B for the year).

Some of the surge in the late '90s was attributed at the time to borrowing to invest in the NASDAQ stock bubble. People were concerned by the large jump in equity extraction, especially in '98 and '99. Seems inconsequential now.

The projected drop off next year (of $100 Billion) is approximately 0.8% of GDP (GDP will be over $12 Trillion in '06).