by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2005 12:03:00 AM

Gasoline stocks have continued to drop and are now near the bottom of the normal range.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is from the DOE.

It is possible that we might see a regional spike in gasoline prices unrelated to the price of oil. With possible major hurricane Katrina bearing down on the gulf coast, a drop in the already tight supply might occur.


The National Hurricane Center provides frequent updates on tropical storms. Although the exact location of landfall and intensity are difficult to predict, it appears Katrina will pass over extremely warm waters and make landfall in the Gulf Coast late Monday. This could disrupt several refineries including the 300,000 barrel-a-day Chevron Pascagoula, Mississippi facility.

Meanwhile demand for gasoline has remained strong.


This graph shows the Year over Year % increase in demand for:

1) Year to date.

2) Last 8 weeks compared to similar period last year.

3) Last 4 weeks compared to similar period last year.

(SOURCE: DOE)

Year to date demand for gasoline remains strong. For the shorter periods there is some normal variability, but there is no clear evidence of weakening demand for either period: the last 8 weeks and the last 4 weeks compared to 2004.

This is an update to an earlier post that discusses how the US economy has become more dependent on oil for transportation purposes as opposed to other uses of petroleum.