by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2005 01:49:00 AM

According to a Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.237 million vs. market expectations of 1.345 million. July sales were revised down to 1.373 million from 1.41 million.


Click on Graph for larger image.

NOTE: The graph starts at 700 thousand units per month to better show monthly variation.

Sales of new one-family houses in August 2005 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,237,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.



The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 106,000 New Homes sold, down from a revised 118,000 in July.

The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2005 was $220,300; the average sales price was $283,400.



Both the average and median sales price rebounded.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 479,000. This represents a supply of 4.7 months at the current sales rate.



The seasonally adjusted supply of New Homes was 4.7 months, a significant increase from recent months.

With the usually caveat that one month does not make a trend, this report shows a significant downturn in the New Home Sales market. Sales were off. Inventories were up. Revisions were negative.

This may be the beginning of the end for this housing cycle.