by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2005 12:15:00 AM

Once again a possible hurricane is threatening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). As I wrote last week on Angry Bear, the oil and gas situation seems stable but precarious.


Click on map for larger image.

Long range hurricane forecasts are subject to large amounts of error, but right now Tropical Storm Rita is projected to hit the Texas coast late next week as a hurricane. This could threaten oil and gas producing interests in the GOM and refineries along the Texas coast.

Here is a map of oil and gas interests in the GOM. Also, a Simmons report on the impact of GOM hurricanes (a couple of years old).


When I initially wrote about the possible economic impact of Katrina (several days before the storm hit the gulf coast), I was concerned about the low inventories of gasoline.

Now we have the added worry that a significant portion of oil and gas production is already shut-in due to Katrina. The graph from the EIA's Daily Report compares the recovery from Katrina as compared to Ivan last year.

Hopefully the storm will dissipate, although on its current track it is expected to cross very warm waters and encounter little shear. Rita bears watching as the week progresses.