by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2005 01:04:00 AM

NHC at 2AM EST announces that Rita is officially the FIFTH MAJOR hurricane of the season. Meanwhile the NHC is now forecasting that Rita might be Category 4 at landfall and that "strengthening into a category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility."

My thoughts are with the residents of south Texas.

The Austin Statesman reports: Oil industry wary of Rita

The U.S. energy industry, already staggered by Hurricane Katrina, is bracing for another punch this weekend as Hurricane Rita heads for oil- and gas-producing areas along the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

A second hit could raise the chances for a recession, some analysts fear.
...
The Gulf of Mexico is home to about a quarter of the country's oil and natural gas production, with Houston hosting the key refining center. Hurricane Rita could hurt in two ways.

First, it could dramatically slow the recovery of production and refining operations devastated three weeks ago by Katrina in the New Orleans area. Second, it could shut down yet more refineries, pipelines and offshore platforms around Houston.

"You got a right cross with Katrina and now a left hook with Rita," said Agbeli Ameko, a partner with First Enercast Financial Inc., a Denver-based energy forecasting firm. "That's worse than getting hit twice in the same spot."
...
The 19 refineries operating along the Texas and western Louisiana coasts can process nearly 4.5 million barrels of oil a day, representing more than a quarter of all domestic capacity.

Analysts are hopeful that Rita's impact will be shorter lived than Katrina's because the Texas refineries are on higher ground than those in the New Orleans area.

On a more positive note: Houston-area refineries say they're prepared

I think the real one-two punch to the economy is energy prices and housing.