by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2005 05:13:00 PM

The Financial Times reports:

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that controls 40 per cent of world oil exports, will on Saturday lift a four-decade veil of secrecy and begin regularly to reveal how much oil it is actually pumping.

China and India, the fastest growing major oil consumers, will also supply consumption and storage data for the first time.

The Joint Oil Data Initiative (Jodi), which will be launched on Saturday in Riyadh by energy and finance ministers of the biggest oil producing and consuming countries, will meet a persistent demand of the Group of seven industrialised countries for more transparent energy data.

The price rise of the past three years, which this year saw oil hit nominal highs of $70.85 a barrel, could in part have been avoided by better data, analysts said. It would provide a more accurate basis for industry investment decisions, which in turn help determine long term supplies.

But analysts also suggested that the new database was unlikely to transform the currently unscientific art of guessing world demand and supply into a simple task.

One person close to Saturday's event said that the data would reveal little difference to existing output estimates for some countries including Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer but would show a five to 10 per cent disparity in the production levels of other Opec countries.

Traders said they would have to wait until the numbers came out to know whether they would move the oil price when markets reopen on Monday.

More transparency is a positive for the oil market, but it doesn't appear this will lead to more transparency on reserves - the key to peak oil predictions.