by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2005 08:32:00 PM

The San Diego Union Tribune reports: 'Median home price tops $500,000, a first'
Click on graph for larger image.

The year-over-year increase to $513,000 was 4.9 percent above October 2004's $489,000, the sixth month in a row that appreciation has been below 10 percent.

October was the 16th month in a row that sales volume has declined on a year-over-year basis. The total last month was 4,155, down from 4,758 a year ago.

And on inventories and foreclosures:

In a separate report from the San Diego Association of Realtors, the inventory of active, unsold listings crossed the 15,000 mark for the first time since the present boom began in 1997. By contrast, at the peak in March last year, there were only 3,113 listings.

Coupled with rising interest rates – which rose to a two-year high of 6.31 percent this week – and a suddenly soaring foreclosure notice rate – up nearly 40 percent for the third quarter compared with a year ago – industry analysts said San Diego's housing boom seems to be coming to a quiet end.
...
... there are early signs of distress. DataQuick's Karevoll said the notice of default rate – the first sign of foreclosure – soared nearly 40 percent to 906 notices in the third quarter. But he said it was far below the peak of 5,139 in the first quarterly of 1996. Only 47 actual foreclosures occurred in the third quarter, compared with 33 a year ago.

Foreclosures are still very low, but rising. The story doesn't provide the exact inventory number, but the inventory to sales ratio is about 3.6 months - still within the normal range.