by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2005 11:06:00 AM

The National Retail Federation reports:

Consumers started their holiday shopping with a bang, responding well to retailers' aggressive promotions. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), retail industry sales for November (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) rose a strong 7.4 percent unadjusted over last year and increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month. The increase is in line with NRF's holiday sales forecast of 6.0 percent growth.

"Consumers shook off concerns about higher energy costs and responded well to the seasonal promotions," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. "If November is any indication of what consumers are capable of, retailers can expect a very happy holiday season."

November retail sales released today by the U.S. Commerce Department show that total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from November, and increased 6.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Gasoline sales, which NRF does not include in its calculation of retail industry sales, rose 17.0 percent unadjusted from last November.

The rosy report was boosted by strong year-to-year growth across nearly every retail industry category, including building material and garden equipment and supplies stores, which jumped a whopping 14.3 percent over last year. The main drivers for this holiday, apparel and electronics, also experienced solid growth. Sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores rose 7.6 percent year-over year and electronics and appliance stores jumped 7.4 percent from November 2004.

Additionally, strong year-over-year gains were seen at health and personal care stores (6.7%), general merchandise stores (7.1%), furniture and home furnishing stores (5.9%) and grocery stores (5.3%).

NRF expects retail industry sales to increase 5.6 percent this year over 2004. Holiday sales, which are defined as retail industry sales in the full months of November and December, are expected to rise 6.0 percent to $438.5 billion.