by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2006 05:53:00 PM

On Economist's View, Dr. Duy writes: FED Watch: To Pause or Not to Pause

"... my interpretation of policy at this point is that the Fed intends to pause at the next meeting while awaiting data that calls into question their expectation of slowing demand later this year. In this light, they will discount nominal signals such as prices and focus on real indicators. Currently, real data on housing and consumer spending are consistent with their null hypothesis."

If Duy is correct, ignore CPI and PPI this week, and focus on jobs, consumer spending and housing indicators to predict the actions of the FED in June.