by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2006 11:15:00 PM

This graph displays the year-over-year percentage change for three housing indicators: New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales and the MBA Purchase Index. Only the Purchase Index has data for April.


Click on graph for larger image.

First, the monthly MBA Purchase Index shows the housing market is continuing to slide - even though the numbers rebounded somewhat in the most recent week.

Second, there is significant variability in the New Home Sales data. However, looking at a long term chart, the trend is definitely down.

Existing Home Sales are a trailing indicator because the sales are reported when escrow closes - about 30 to 60 days after the contract is signed.

Given this data, I expect further declines in the reported New and Existing Home sales for April.