RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2006 02:44:00 PM
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
DataQuick: SoCal Appreciation / Sales Weaken
DataQuick reports: Southland home prices set record, appreciation/sales weaken
Southern California home prices climbed to a new peak last month but at the slowest pace in more than six years. Prices edged higher even as June sales fell to a seven- year low, the result of higher borrowing costs, more inventory and less urgency among buyers.
| Median Home Price | June-04 | June-05 | June-06 | Pct.Chg |
| Los Angeles | $414K | $475K | $517K | 8.8% |
| Orange County | $540K | $603K | $646K | 7.1% |
| San Diego | $464K | $493K | 488K | -1.0% |
| Riverside | $319K | $393K | $422K | 7.4% |
| San Bernardino | $246K | $322K | $367K | 14.0% |
| Ventura | $500K | $584K | $627K | 7.4% |
| TOTAL SoCal | $406K | $465K | $493K | 6.0% |
I added the June 2004 median prices to give a two year perspective on prices.
DataQuick addessed the apparently price puzzle with rising inventories and falling sales:
"Many view this as a great conundrum: Prices continue to rise, even set records, as sales continue to slow. It happened for two years in San Diego before prices last month finally fell slightly below year-ago levels. We view this as the normal winding down of a real estate cycle, where declining demand gradually erodes price growth until it halts or reverses. We expect more markets to see prices flatten or decline a bit in the second half of this year," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
| Homes Sold | June-04 | June-05 | June-06 | Pct.Chg |
| Los Angeles | 11,673 | 12,001 | 10,248 | -14.6% |
| Orange County | 4,749 | 4,898 | 3,608 | -26.3% |
| San Diego | 6,208 | 5,663 | 4,301 | -24.1% |
| Riverside | 6,343 | 6,485 | 5.927 | -8.6% |
| San Bernardino | 4,292 | 4,700 | 3.998 | -14.9% |
| Ventura | 1,466 | 1,707 | 1,155 | -32.3% |
| TOTAL SoCal | 34,731 | 35,454 | 29,237 | -17.5% |
Notice that San Diego had declining sales in 2005 compared to 2004. As LA Times writer David Streitfeld noted about the San Diego housing market:
San Diego had the wildest run-up among major California cities, with prices tripling since the mid-1990s. ... The market also began to fade first in San Diego. ...It does appear that San Diego is leading the way, and I think that means declining prices soon in all of SoCal.
Whatever happens [in San Diego], optimists and pessimists agree, will happen later in the rest of the state.
