by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2006 03:00:00 PM

Homebuilder Toll Brothers warned again today. From TheStreet: Toll Trims Estimates Again

Homebuilder Toll Brothers reported a 48% plunge in third-quarter new orders and again cut its delivery forecast for the year, as the company blamed oversupply for the weak U.S. housing market.

Toll, the country's largest luxury-home builder, also warned that it is walking away from certain land option contracts, which will results in write-offs of deposits. The company said it will quantify this impact when it reports earnings later in August.

...Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll said the current housing slowdown first manifested last September and is "somewhat unique."

"It is the first downturn in the 40 years since we entered the business that was not precipitated by high interest rates, a weak economy, job losses or other macroeconomic factors," he said.

"Instead, it seems to be the result of an oversupply of inventory and a decline in confidence: Speculative buyers who spurred demand in 2004 and 2005 are now sellers; builders that built speculative homes must now move their specs; and nervous buyers are canceling contracts for homes already under construction. The resulting excess supply has exacerbated the drop in consumer confidence, which first appeared last September, that was already a drag on new-home sales."

The company also said it saw an increase in its cancellation rates in a number of markets, including Orlando, Fla.; Northern California; Palm Springs, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Phoenix.

And subprime mortgage lender, Accredited Homes also warned. Reuters reports: Accredited Home tumbles after slashing outlook

Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., a California subprime mortgage lender, slashed its 2006 profit forecast on Wednesday, saying loan volume and net gains on whole loan sales will be lower than expected.

And from the Press Release:

Delinquent loans (30 or more days past due, including foreclosures and real estate owned) were 3.76% of the serviced portfolio at June 30, 2006, compared to 2.47% at December 31, 2005 and 1.79% at June 30, 2005.

Bad news at the high end (Luxury Homes). Bad news at the low end (Subprime Mortgages).