by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2006 11:36:00 AM

David Streitfeld writes in the LA Times: More Home Buyers Stretch Truth, Budgets to Get Loans

Mortgage fraud continues to escalate in Southern California, FBI figures show, raising concerns of increased defaults and foreclosures as the housing market cools down.

Lenders filed 4,228 reports of suspicious activity in the region during the first 11 months of the government's fiscal year, which ends Saturday, the FBI said. That puts 2006 on track to nearly double last year's total.

The jump in reports of suspicious activity even as home sales have declined may stem in part from a lag in reporting. But the FBI and industry experts say the trend also reflects growing deceit by average borrowers who overstated their income, exaggerated their assets or hid their debts simply to qualify for a mortgage in the region's sky-high housing market.
...
During the boom, people who lied about their income to get a loan — and then struggled to make the payments — had the option of making ends meet by tapping their newfound equity through refinancing or by selling the property for a profit.

But now, with prices flattening out or declining, those without sufficient equity could be forced to sell for a loss or even default on payments. That could accelerate any downturn in the market by swamping it with foreclosed and bargain-priced properties.

"It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." Warren Buffett.