by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2006 02:11:00 PM

DataQuick reports: Continued slowdown for Southland home sales

Southland homes continued to sell at their slowest pace in nine years in September, the result of buyer reticence and a rebalancing of supply and demand. Prices are leveling off, a real estate information service reported.
...
The median price paid for a Southland home was $484,000 last month. That was down 1.0 percent from $489,000 in August, and up 1.9 percent from $475,000 in September last year. Last month's increase was the smallest since February 1997, when the $160,000 median rose 1.3 percent from $158,000 a year earlier.

Southern California Median Home Prices
Area	Sept '04	Sept '05	Sept '06	Pct Change
Los Angeles	$407K	$494K	$509K	3.0%
Orange County	$533K	$610K	$626K	2.6%
San Diego	$480K	$498K	$476K	-4.4%
Riverside	$338K	$391K	$423K	8.2%
San Bernardino	$265K	$352K	$365K	3.7%
Ventura	$540K	$604K	$584K	-3.3%
Southern California	$409K	$475K	$484K	1.9%

I added the September 2004 median prices to give a two year perspective on prices.

A total of 22,654 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 11.6 percent from 25,628 in August, and down 28.6 percent from 31,740 for September a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

A decline from August to September is normal for the season. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any September since 1997 when 21,320 homes were sold. Since 1988 September sales have ranged from 12,838 in 1992 to 34,653 in 1988. The September average is 23,341, slightly above last month's sales.

Southern California Homes Sold
Area	Sept '04	Sept '05	Sept '06	Pct Change
Los Angeles	10,501	10,988	7,917	-27.9%
Orange County	3,585	4,072	2,664	-34.6%
San Diego	5,177	4,935	3,207	-35.0%
Riverside	5,375	6,001	4,533	-24.5%
San Bernardino	4,064	4,364	3,236	-25.8%
Ventura	1,240	1,380	1,097	-20.5%
Southern California	29,942	31,740	22,654	-28.6%

Notice that San Diego had declining sales in 2005 compared to 2004. As LA Times writer David Streitfeld noted about the San Diego housing market:

San Diego had the wildest run-up among major California cities, with prices tripling since the mid-1990s. ... The market also began to fade first in San Diego. ...

Whatever happens [in San Diego], optimists and pessimists agree, will happen later in the rest of the state.

It does appear that San Diego is leading the way, and I think that means declining prices soon in all of SoCal.