by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2006 12:43:00 PM

The October advanced monthly retail sales from the Census Bureau are a little confusing this month due to the steep drop in gasoline prices.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the previous month, but up 4.5 percent from October 2005. Total sales for the August through October 2006 period were up 5.3 percent from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2006 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent to -0.8 percent.

The following graph shows real monthly retail sales with and without gasoline stations.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: Adjusted using Median CPI from Cleveland Fed, Oct estimated.

Total retail sales are declining. Excluding gasoline stations, real monthly retail sales are flat.

Even the National Retail Federation is cautious: Retailers See Moderate Retail Sales Growth in October, Slow Housing Market Beginning to Impact Home-Related Sales

"Although gas prices have declined, the slow housing market appears to be hurting consumer spending power as home improvement and home furnishing categories begin to struggle," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells.

Roubini see the numbers as portending a recession: Inflation and Sales Faltering