by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2006 06:19:00 PM
Friday, November 17, 2006
RealtyTrac: Foreclosures Pass 1 Million for 2006
RealtyTrac reports: Foreclosures Surpass 1 Million Mark in October
“So far this year more than 1 million properties have entered some stage of foreclosure nationwide, up 27 percent from the same time last year. ... Our data from the last three months shows that foreclosures are definitely trending upward...”Check the report for your state.
James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.
Here is a table from an earlier post on default notices in California (source: DataQuick):
California Default Notices, Source: DataQuick | |
Year | Default Notices |
1992 | 100,573 |
1993 | 121,416 |
1994 | 122,530 |
1995 | 135,713 |
1996 | 162,597 |
1997 | 141,180 |
1998 | 122,775 |
1999 | 101,053 |
2000 | 88,666 |
2001 | 81,003 |
2002 | 78,784 |
2003 | 66,127 |
2004 | 52,674 |
2005 | 54,476 |
2006 (through Q3) | 66,185 |
There were 26,705 default notices sent to California homeowners in Q3. At that pace, the number of default notices sent in 2006 would be the highest since 1999 (66,185 through Q3 + 26,705 = 92,890).
That projection now seems optimistic. RealtyTrac shows 13,601 default notices sent to California homeowners in October alone (half of my Q4 estimate in one month).
The rapid increase in foreclosure activity, combined with falling home prices and a weakening California economy, lead me to believe there will be a record number of default notices sent to California homeowners in 2007, surpassing the previous record of 162,597 in 1996.
Note that 1996 was the last year of the previous housing bust in California. The bust lasted over 6 years. Next year will only be the second year of the current bust.
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