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Monday, January 22, 2007

Record Foreclosure Activity in 2007?

by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2007 02:23:00 PM

From the Cincinnati Enquirer: Thousands face loss of homes

For the seventh straight year, foreclosure filings hit record highs not only here but in all of Ohio and Kentucky.

Record foreclosures were also a national phenomenon, and Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky were at the front. Through Sept. 30, Ohio led the nation with 3.32 percent of its home loans in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Indiana was second at 2.9 percent; Kentucky, fifth at 1.76 percent. The national average was 1.05 percent.
And from the Dallas Morning News: Foreclosure lists near 1989 record
... the 1,940 homes in Dallas County and 1,274 Tarrant County homes threatened with foreclosure are approaching record highs, said George Roddy, president of Foreclosure Listing Service.

"This is getting serious," Mr. Roddy said. "This level is getting very close to the all-time records set in 1989, when an average of 2,000 postings were filed monthly on Dallas County residences."

Back then, it was a regional recession that caused the number of home foreclosures to spike.

This go-around it's often because of poor consumer choices, credit analysts say.

"Some of them got into more house than they can afford," said Gail Cunningham with Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Dallas.
These are the areas that saw limited price appreciation during the housing boom. In 2007, the states with the highest appreciation will probably start experiencing near record levels of foreclosure activity. In California, foreclosure activity is already in the "normal range", according to DataQuick, and early January data suggests 2007 might exceed the records set in 1996.

This is one of the keys to my 2007 housing forecast.