by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2007 10:12:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.937 million. Sales for December were revised up slightly to 1.123 million, from 1.120 million. Numbers for October and November were revised downwards.


Click on Graph for larger image.
Sales of new one-family houses in January 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000 ... This is 16.6 percent below the revised December rate of 1,123,000 and is 20.1 percent below the January 2006 estimate of 1,173,000.


The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 70,000 New Homes sold. There were 89,000 New Homes sold in January 2006.

On a year over year NSA basis, January 2007 sales were 21.3% lower than January 2006. January '07 sales were the lowest since January 2002 (66,000).


The median and average sales prices were up. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2007 was $239,800; the average sales price was $313,000.


The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 536,000.

The 536,000 units of inventory is slightly below the levels of the last six months. Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are much higher - some estimate about 20% higher.


This represents a supply of 6.8 months at the current sales rate.


More later today on New Home Sales.