by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2007 05:14:00 PM

From Bloomberg (hat tip Brian): Toll Calls Spring `A Bust,' Can't Predict Recovery

"When will the market rebound?" [Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll] said at a conference in Las Vegas today. "Who knows? The Shadow knows. I have no idea. I would've thought that it would've rebounded by now and I would've been dead wrong, and I was."
...
"You saw no jump in all the other markets and the spring selling season, or the prime selling season, was pretty much a bust on a per community basis," Toll said.

The Wall Street consensus was for a bottom in Q1 2007. That view is "no longer operative". I'll try to call the bottom for New Home sales, a couple of quarters before it happens, but IMO it is still too early to even try.