by Calculated Risk on 3/08/2007 08:41:00 AM

The Department of Labor reported today:

In the week ending March 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 328,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 338,000. The 4-week moving average was 339,000, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 335,250.

As the 4-week moving average has steadily increased over recent weeks, I've been watching the claims data a little closer.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1990. I think the level of concern for the 4-week moving average is around 350K (dashed line on graph).

Last week, Northern Trust VP and Economist Asha Bangalore suggested that the claims data might be starting to indicate a "significant weakness developing in the labor market". We will know more tomorrow.