by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2007 01:43:00 PM

The Census Bureau reported today for March 2007:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $371.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month and up 3.8 percent from March 2006.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year over year change in real retail sales ex-food, using the monthly PCE price index. Although March sales were strong, the real YoY change is fairly weak.

From the National Retail Federation: As Expected, March Retail Sales Show Solid Growth, According to NRF

Retailers saw strong March sales thanks to an early Easter and unseasonably warm weather. According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales for March (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) rose 3.7 percent unadjusted over last year and 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted from February.

“The big winners in March were clothing stores, whose shoppers splurged on new spring apparel,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “Clearly the weather and the early Easter had a desirable impact on retail sales.”