by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2007 10:10:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915 thousand. Sales for April were revised down significantly to 930 thousand, from 981 thousand. Numbers for February and March were also revised down.


Click on Graph for larger image.
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 ... This is 1.6 percent below the revised April rate of 930,000 and is 15.8 percent below the May 2006 estimate of 1,087,000.


The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 85,000 New Homes sold. There were 102,000 New Homes sold in May 2006.

May '07 sales were the lowest May since 2001 (80,000).


The median and average sales prices were up. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised.

The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2007 was $236,100; the average sales price was $313,000.


The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 536,000.

The 536,000 units of inventory is slightly below the levels of the last year. Inventory for the previous months were revised up slightly. For April, the inventory was initially reported at 532,000 (so May would show an increase), but was revised up to 542,000 (so May shows a slight decrease).

Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are much higher - some estimate about 20% higher.


This represents a supply of 7.1 months at the current sales rate.

The large downward revision for April removed some of the strength from April's report. It appears we are back to were sales are being revised down every month - probably indicating another downturn in the market - and I expect the trend to continue. More later today on New Home Sales.