by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2007 01:33:00 PM
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Contest: Forecast 2007 Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales through June were 2.929 million units. In a typical year, sales through June are about half the sales for the year. So at the current pace, sales will be around 5.86 million.
Here are a few forecasts (made at the end of '06):
David Lereah (as NAR economist): 6.34 million
Fannie Mae Chief Economist David Berson: 5.925 million
Calculated Risk (me): 5.7 million (center of range, 5.6 to 5.8 million).
And a few more forecasts from the comments:
Banker: 5.5 million
Barely: 5.35 million
central_scrutinizer: 5.9 million
Please feel free to add your prediction to the comments section of this post. We will announce a winner in January - and the prize will be ... uh, your name announced as the winner and the admiration of others.