by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2007 11:53:00 AM

Following the sluggish consumer spending numbers for April and May, June doesn't look any better. From Econoday on Redbook:

Redbook reports a very soft June 30 week for U.S. retailers, showing only a 1.2 percent year-on-year rise in the week. For the month of June, Redbook pegs year-on-year sales growth at 1.6 percent which compares with ICSC-UBS's range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent. Vehicle sales later today will offer another angle on consumer spending in June, which based on chain-store reports looks no better, if not weaker, than May.
emphasis added

I think we are looking at a significant slowdown in real PCE growth for Q2; my estimate is around 1.5% (Northern Trust's Bangalore estimated 1.7% before the Redbook and ICSC-UBS reports were released).

UPDATE: Car sales from the WSJ: Ford Sales Decline 8.1%; Toyota Posts 10% Gain

Ford Motor Co. on Tuesday posted a 8.1% drop in U.S. sales of light vehicles for June ... [Ford] launched a new incentive campaign late in June, offering 0% loans for 36 months on domestic vehicles and an additional $2,007 discount on trucks and SUVs.

Toyota Motor Corp., which is running neck-and-neck with Ford for the No. 2 sales ranking, saw its U.S. sales jump 10% ...

Chrysler Group recorded a 1.4% fall ...

GM will also report its June sales data Tuesday afternoon.

Note: Haloscan is having more problems today.