by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2007 11:18:00 AM

From the National Association of Realtors (NAR): Near-Term Home Sales to Hold in Modest Range

Existing-home sales are forecast at 6.04 million in 2007 and 6.38 million next year, below the 6.48 million recorded in 2006. New-home sales are expected to total 852,000 this year and 848,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006.

Last month, the NAR forecast was for 6.11 million existing home sales and 865,000 new home sales.

This current forecast appears absurd. Existing home sales through June were 2.929 million units. And in a typical year, about half the sales happen by the end of June. So the NAR is forecasting sales will pick up in the 2nd half of 2007 - something that seems very unlikely with the most recent changes in lending standards.