by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2007 10:00:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870 thousand. Sales for June were revised up to 846 thousand, from 834 thousand. Numbers for April and May were revised down.


Click on Graph for larger image.
Sales of new one-family houses in June 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 ... This is 2.8 percent above the revised June rate of 846,000 and is 10.2 percent below the July 2006 estimate of 969,000.


The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 74,000 New Homes sold. There were 83,000 New Homes sold in July 2006.

July '07 sales were the lowest July since 2000 (74,000).


The median and average sales prices were mixed. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised and do not include builder incentives.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2007 was $239,500; the average sales price was $300,800.


The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 533,000.

The 533,000 units of inventory is slightly below the levels of the last year.

Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are once again at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are probably much higher than reported - some estimate are about 20% higher.


This represents a supply of 7.5 months at the current sales rate.

This is another weak report for New Home sales. And the data for July is pre-turmoil. These numbers will probably be revised down, and the in-turmoil numbers for August will likely be much lower.

More later today on New Home Sales.